Oorang’s 2003 Over/Under Mid-Season Total Report
(Original post July 30, 2003, based on Pinnacle Lines dated 7/28/03)
(Update dated November 2, 2003)
Play-Makers,
On July 30 I posted my Over/Under Season Total Report. Following is the Mid-Season Report and comments on original picks.
2003 Season Total Report
Tampa Bay 10.5
Awesome D. Tough schedule. Post-SB, etc. Too many factors.
- Post Super Bowl schedule is a factor. Need to win 7 out of 9 for the Over.
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5
If they beat it, Pennsylvania is the place for football.
- Pennsylvania is not the place for football this year. How about McNabb and those receivers? Need to win 7 out of 9 for the Over.
Green Bay 9.5
Do you want to take a chance on Ahman Green and that defense?
- Enough said. Packers need 7 out of 9 for the Over.
Tennessee Titans 9.5
Easy division, but early questions.
- Easy division and found some answers in McNair. Need 4 out of 8 for the Over.
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5
Maddox and Bettis in lead roles? Is the defense fixed just with Troy?
- Guess I answered that question. Need 8 out of 9 for the over.
Oakland Raiders 9.5
Very fair line if you’re a Raider fan.
- Very tough season if you are a Raider fan. It’s rough at the top this year. Need 8 out of 9 for the Over.
Denver Broncos 9.5
They can run, and stop the run. But this division is too competitive.
- Started hot but injuries are mounting. Need 5 out of 8 for the Over.
Miami Dolphins 9.5
If Big Lou has them to win the Conference I’ll play a small Over.
- Season totals pointed to Miami over Jacksonville as a solid play. Need 5 out of 9 for the Over.
New York Jets 9.5
Jets defense improved but so did the division. Really squeaked in last year. Is 10 wins feasible on 2003’s toughest schedule? Five preseason games and a tough schedule that gets tougher in the second half. 1.0 advantage.
Play the Under.
- Pennington’s injury sealed the deal. Need 8 out of 9 for the Over.
S.F 49ers 9.5
San Francisco seems to be walking a fine line without upgrading their team too much. There is solid starting talent but injuries must be avoided. Did they keep up with the Jones’?
- The Jones’ are coming to town today and you better be ready to serve them dessert. San Francisco needs 7 out of 8 for the Over.
St. Louis Rams 9.5
The Rams know what they are going to do, they’re just not telling anybody. They’ve been there before but it’s been awhile.
- Looks like the word’s out. Need 5 out of 9 for the Over.
Atlanta Falcons 9.5
I think he can do it. They think he can do it. He thinks he can do it. Do you think he can do it?
- One Vick does not a team make. Need 9 out of 9 for the Over.
New England Patriots 8.5
If you’ve got them to win the division, lean towards the Over. No reason they should go worse than 7-9, 8-8 even if the running game is weak.
- This prediction was made when the Patriots were healthy. This team is built on defense so they’ve done quite a job. Need 3 out of 8 for the Over.
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5
There’s not a lot of cushion and a fairly tough schedule. I think they will just break the Over despite the defense.
- Despite the defense the Chiefs need 1 out of 8 for the Over. And check out the remaining schedule: CLE, @ Cin, OAK, @ Sd, @ Den, DET, @ Min, CHI. Home field advantage is the goal.
Cleveland Browns 8.5
No value on a team with a lot of questions. I’m leaning towards the Under.
- The Browns have had too many personnel changes and lack of talent. But that’s because they are still an expansion team. The playoff game was nice, but this team has some work to do. Need 6 out of 8 for the Over.
Indianapolis Colts 8.5
Good defenses in this division but Indi has a good offense too. Should finally win in easier division. Good schedule for them. 1.5 advantage.
Play the Over.
- Dungy is finally having an impact on this team. Still one year away. Need 3 out of 9 for the Over.
Buffalo Bills 8.5
If you want an e-ticket Season Total bet either side of this coin@!%#.
- This e-ticket needs 5 out of 8 wins for the Over. Remaining schedule: @ Dal, HOU, IND, @ Nyg, NYJ, @ Ten, MIA, @ Ne. This season was Under, I mean Over, I mean…
New York Giants 8.5
Same as New England. If you’ve got them to win the division, this is a good number to bet into. This division is even more schizophrenic than the AFC East.
- They started the tough part of their schedule and lost 3 in a row. They are in the middle of 4 out of 5 on the road. They need 6 out of 9 for the Over. It’s that kind of year for the G-Men.
San Diego 8.5
Feels like a team on the rise but in a tough division. Hard to rely on persistent late season swoons in calling a total.
- How about an early-season swoon to take care of the total. Chargers need 8 out of 9 for the Over.
Washington Redskins 7.5
Redskins fans are probably feeling a slighted by this line. But they have a tough schedule and a tough order. A break in November yet 3 out of 4 are on the road.
- Guess what. That break in November is the sound of Spurrier’s check being ripped in two by the Dark Lord himself. Only need 5 out of 9 for the Over.
Minnesota Vikings 8.5
Very tough schedule early. Not enough value either way. A good line.
- Great line if you liked the Over. Should have known the division was this terrible.
New Orleans Saints 7.5
There are some breaks in this schedule. They’ve seemingly beefed up the team. This number reflects strength in the division but I would have to lean towards the Over.
- Need 5 out of 8 for the Over. They have Tampa Bay on their schedule twice. They should think about sweeping them again.
Seattle Seahawks 7.5
Even if St. Louis bounces back, this team seems to have the intangibles. A .500 season seems plausible and the schedule is favorable. If the defense can improve enough the offense should handle it. Dilfer is good insurance. 1.0 advantage.
Play on the Over
- Football and intangibles. I got to get me some of those intangibles. Need 2 out of 8 for the Over.
Baltimore Ravens 7.5
No value. Decent schedule and their defense should win 6 by themselves.
- Defense continues its trend. Need 4 out of 9 for the Over. Defense wins Championships. Defense covers spreads.
Dallas Cowboys 7.5
A 8-8 season would be a great accomplishment for the Boys.
- Bring on the Blue Ribbons and Coach of the Year. Boys need 3 out of 9 for the Over. And you think Minnesota fans are holding their breath.
Carolina Panthers 7.5
It seems like most teams have a tough schedule this year and the Panthers are no exception. Just like the Cowboys, an 8-8 season would be an accomplishment.
- Need 2 out of 9 for the Over. They turned their early tough schedule in their favor. Although December is on the road (where they’ve won 3), @ Atl, @ Az, DET and @ Nyg has a nice sound to it.
Chicago Bears 6.5
For all the hype and chatter about how well the Bears are going to do it doesn’t seem reflected in this line. There is room to wiggle in this division but like the Vikings, the schedule is a nightmare.
- Team is a nightmare, schedule isn’t so bad. Need 4 out of 9 for the Over.
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5
Too many outcomes to consider.
- That usually points towards an Under Need 6 out of 9 for the Over.
Detroit Lions 5.5
The Lions goal is to get better first. Then they can worry about winning games. Slight better schedule than Vikings and Bears but still tough competition. The Lions would consider themselves fortunate to win 6 or 7. Lay off.
- My mistake. Any team that needs to get better first is going to have a hard time winning games. Need 5 out of 9 for the Over. Tough part of their schedule is approaching.
Arizona Cardinals 5.5
Arizona has the 32 toughest schedule this year, hence the higher number. But it might be hard to argue that there is a worse team in the league. Houston has a defense and Detroit, well… Anyway, bad teams find ways to lose games. If they win all the games they are supposed to win, they should hit 6. Lean on the Under.
- The Cincinnati game will go a long way in determining this outcome. After that, the schedule is very difficult.
Cincinnati Bengals 5.5
Look at their division and past history. Look at the money they spent and new talent on the team. They usually take the Under so this is a lay off for me.
- Cincinnati has 4 out of 5 on the road in November-December. They better take advantage of @ Az and HOU right now.
Houston Texans 5.5
There’s a break or two in the 7th toughest schedule, but not early and not often. Still should be very tough for Texans to break 6 wins.
- Need 4 out of 9 for the Over. Sophmore slump and injuries.
Some value so far:
UNDERS: Pittsburgh, Oakland, NY Jets, Atlanta, San Diego
OVER: Kansas City, Seattle, Carolina
My pre-season selections:
Jets Under
Seattle Over
Indianapolis Over
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(Original post July 30, 2003, based on Pinnacle Lines dated 7/28/03)
(Update dated November 2, 2003)
Play-Makers,
On July 30 I posted my Over/Under Season Total Report. Following is the Mid-Season Report and comments on original picks.
2003 Season Total Report
Tampa Bay 10.5
Awesome D. Tough schedule. Post-SB, etc. Too many factors.
- Post Super Bowl schedule is a factor. Need to win 7 out of 9 for the Over.
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5
If they beat it, Pennsylvania is the place for football.
- Pennsylvania is not the place for football this year. How about McNabb and those receivers? Need to win 7 out of 9 for the Over.
Green Bay 9.5
Do you want to take a chance on Ahman Green and that defense?
- Enough said. Packers need 7 out of 9 for the Over.
Tennessee Titans 9.5
Easy division, but early questions.
- Easy division and found some answers in McNair. Need 4 out of 8 for the Over.
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5
Maddox and Bettis in lead roles? Is the defense fixed just with Troy?
- Guess I answered that question. Need 8 out of 9 for the over.
Oakland Raiders 9.5
Very fair line if you’re a Raider fan.
- Very tough season if you are a Raider fan. It’s rough at the top this year. Need 8 out of 9 for the Over.
Denver Broncos 9.5
They can run, and stop the run. But this division is too competitive.
- Started hot but injuries are mounting. Need 5 out of 8 for the Over.
Miami Dolphins 9.5
If Big Lou has them to win the Conference I’ll play a small Over.
- Season totals pointed to Miami over Jacksonville as a solid play. Need 5 out of 9 for the Over.
New York Jets 9.5
Jets defense improved but so did the division. Really squeaked in last year. Is 10 wins feasible on 2003’s toughest schedule? Five preseason games and a tough schedule that gets tougher in the second half. 1.0 advantage.
Play the Under.
- Pennington’s injury sealed the deal. Need 8 out of 9 for the Over.
S.F 49ers 9.5
San Francisco seems to be walking a fine line without upgrading their team too much. There is solid starting talent but injuries must be avoided. Did they keep up with the Jones’?
- The Jones’ are coming to town today and you better be ready to serve them dessert. San Francisco needs 7 out of 8 for the Over.
St. Louis Rams 9.5
The Rams know what they are going to do, they’re just not telling anybody. They’ve been there before but it’s been awhile.
- Looks like the word’s out. Need 5 out of 9 for the Over.
Atlanta Falcons 9.5
I think he can do it. They think he can do it. He thinks he can do it. Do you think he can do it?
- One Vick does not a team make. Need 9 out of 9 for the Over.
New England Patriots 8.5
If you’ve got them to win the division, lean towards the Over. No reason they should go worse than 7-9, 8-8 even if the running game is weak.
- This prediction was made when the Patriots were healthy. This team is built on defense so they’ve done quite a job. Need 3 out of 8 for the Over.
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5
There’s not a lot of cushion and a fairly tough schedule. I think they will just break the Over despite the defense.
- Despite the defense the Chiefs need 1 out of 8 for the Over. And check out the remaining schedule: CLE, @ Cin, OAK, @ Sd, @ Den, DET, @ Min, CHI. Home field advantage is the goal.
Cleveland Browns 8.5
No value on a team with a lot of questions. I’m leaning towards the Under.
- The Browns have had too many personnel changes and lack of talent. But that’s because they are still an expansion team. The playoff game was nice, but this team has some work to do. Need 6 out of 8 for the Over.
Indianapolis Colts 8.5
Good defenses in this division but Indi has a good offense too. Should finally win in easier division. Good schedule for them. 1.5 advantage.
Play the Over.
- Dungy is finally having an impact on this team. Still one year away. Need 3 out of 9 for the Over.
Buffalo Bills 8.5
If you want an e-ticket Season Total bet either side of this coin@!%#.
- This e-ticket needs 5 out of 8 wins for the Over. Remaining schedule: @ Dal, HOU, IND, @ Nyg, NYJ, @ Ten, MIA, @ Ne. This season was Under, I mean Over, I mean…
New York Giants 8.5
Same as New England. If you’ve got them to win the division, this is a good number to bet into. This division is even more schizophrenic than the AFC East.
- They started the tough part of their schedule and lost 3 in a row. They are in the middle of 4 out of 5 on the road. They need 6 out of 9 for the Over. It’s that kind of year for the G-Men.
San Diego 8.5
Feels like a team on the rise but in a tough division. Hard to rely on persistent late season swoons in calling a total.
- How about an early-season swoon to take care of the total. Chargers need 8 out of 9 for the Over.
Washington Redskins 7.5
Redskins fans are probably feeling a slighted by this line. But they have a tough schedule and a tough order. A break in November yet 3 out of 4 are on the road.
- Guess what. That break in November is the sound of Spurrier’s check being ripped in two by the Dark Lord himself. Only need 5 out of 9 for the Over.
Minnesota Vikings 8.5
Very tough schedule early. Not enough value either way. A good line.
- Great line if you liked the Over. Should have known the division was this terrible.
New Orleans Saints 7.5
There are some breaks in this schedule. They’ve seemingly beefed up the team. This number reflects strength in the division but I would have to lean towards the Over.
- Need 5 out of 8 for the Over. They have Tampa Bay on their schedule twice. They should think about sweeping them again.
Seattle Seahawks 7.5
Even if St. Louis bounces back, this team seems to have the intangibles. A .500 season seems plausible and the schedule is favorable. If the defense can improve enough the offense should handle it. Dilfer is good insurance. 1.0 advantage.
Play on the Over
- Football and intangibles. I got to get me some of those intangibles. Need 2 out of 8 for the Over.
Baltimore Ravens 7.5
No value. Decent schedule and their defense should win 6 by themselves.
- Defense continues its trend. Need 4 out of 9 for the Over. Defense wins Championships. Defense covers spreads.
Dallas Cowboys 7.5
A 8-8 season would be a great accomplishment for the Boys.
- Bring on the Blue Ribbons and Coach of the Year. Boys need 3 out of 9 for the Over. And you think Minnesota fans are holding their breath.
Carolina Panthers 7.5
It seems like most teams have a tough schedule this year and the Panthers are no exception. Just like the Cowboys, an 8-8 season would be an accomplishment.
- Need 2 out of 9 for the Over. They turned their early tough schedule in their favor. Although December is on the road (where they’ve won 3), @ Atl, @ Az, DET and @ Nyg has a nice sound to it.
Chicago Bears 6.5
For all the hype and chatter about how well the Bears are going to do it doesn’t seem reflected in this line. There is room to wiggle in this division but like the Vikings, the schedule is a nightmare.
- Team is a nightmare, schedule isn’t so bad. Need 4 out of 9 for the Over.
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5
Too many outcomes to consider.
- That usually points towards an Under Need 6 out of 9 for the Over.
Detroit Lions 5.5
The Lions goal is to get better first. Then they can worry about winning games. Slight better schedule than Vikings and Bears but still tough competition. The Lions would consider themselves fortunate to win 6 or 7. Lay off.
- My mistake. Any team that needs to get better first is going to have a hard time winning games. Need 5 out of 9 for the Over. Tough part of their schedule is approaching.
Arizona Cardinals 5.5
Arizona has the 32 toughest schedule this year, hence the higher number. But it might be hard to argue that there is a worse team in the league. Houston has a defense and Detroit, well… Anyway, bad teams find ways to lose games. If they win all the games they are supposed to win, they should hit 6. Lean on the Under.
- The Cincinnati game will go a long way in determining this outcome. After that, the schedule is very difficult.
Cincinnati Bengals 5.5
Look at their division and past history. Look at the money they spent and new talent on the team. They usually take the Under so this is a lay off for me.
- Cincinnati has 4 out of 5 on the road in November-December. They better take advantage of @ Az and HOU right now.
Houston Texans 5.5
There’s a break or two in the 7th toughest schedule, but not early and not often. Still should be very tough for Texans to break 6 wins.
- Need 4 out of 9 for the Over. Sophmore slump and injuries.
Some value so far:
UNDERS: Pittsburgh, Oakland, NY Jets, Atlanta, San Diego
OVER: Kansas City, Seattle, Carolina
My pre-season selections:
Jets Under
Seattle Over
Indianapolis Over
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